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Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered record revenue of $7.01B (+16% YoY) and AOI of $798M (+11% YoY); concerts AOI rose 33% to $359M with attendance up 14% to 44M, underscoring international strength across Europe, APAC, and Latin America .
  • Revenue beat S&P Global consensus by ~1.6% ($7.01B vs $6.89B*), but diluted EPS of $0.41 missed by a wide margin vs $1.04*; management cited $185M higher cumulative costs from accretion, taxes, and FX impacting EPS .
  • Momentum indicators point to another record year: event-related deferred revenue in Concerts hit $5.1B (+25% YoY) and Ticketmaster deferred revenue reached an all-time high $317M (+22% YoY); 95% of sponsorship revenue for 2025 is already committed .
  • Guidance reiterated: double-digit AOI growth for FY25, AOI margins consistent with last year across segments, capex $900M–$1B, minimal FX impact in 2H; additionally, OCESA accretion expected at ~$250M in Q3 and ~$35M in Q4 .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: strong top-line and Concerts performance, but EPS miss, lower secondary GTV at Ticketmaster, and higher accretion/tax/NCI could drive volatility; Q3 OCESA accretion and 2H AOI acceleration are positive offsets .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q2 revenue and AOI with international-led growth: “Global expansion continues to drive touring growth… we’re positioned to grow operating income and AOI by double-digits this year and for years to come.” – Michael Rapino, CEO .
  • Concerts profitability inflected: AOI up 33% to $359M with attendance up 14% to 44M; stadium fan count tripled YoY and international arenas rose 20% .
  • Commercial momentum durable: Concerts deferred revenue $5.1B (+25%), Ticketmaster deferred revenue $317M (+22%), and 95% of 2025 sponsorship committed, indicating high revenue visibility into 2H .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss despite revenue beat: diluted EPS of $0.41 vs consensus $1.04*; management highlighted $185M higher cumulative costs (accretion, taxes, FX) vs last year impacting EPS .
  • Ticketmaster AOI flat YoY and secondary GTV down mid-single digits, reflecting increased market-based pricing in primary and lower-performing sporting events .
  • Corporate expenses rose YoY (Corporate AOI -$71.2M vs -$61.4M), and non-controlling interest (NCI) elevated, with guidance for NCI to increase in line with AOI growth .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)$6.02 $3.38 $7.01 $6.89*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.03 $(0.32) $0.41 $1.04*
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$465.8 $114.8 $486.7 —
Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) ($USD Millions)$716.2 $341.1 $798.4 —

Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment revenue and AOI (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024):

SegmentRevenue Q2 2024 ($MM)Revenue Q2 2025 ($MM)AOI Q2 2024 ($MM)AOI Q2 2025 ($MM)
Concerts$4,987.0 $5,946.4 $270.7 $358.7
Ticketing$730.7 $742.7 $292.5 $290.1
Sponsorship & Advertising$312.2 $340.6 $222.6 $227.6
Other & Eliminations$(6.5) $(23.1) $(8.2) $(6.8)
Corporate (AOI)——$(61.4) $(71.2)

Key KPIs and financial indicators:

KPI / IndicatorQ2 2025YoY Change
Concerts attendance (fans)44M +14%
Ticketmaster total reported GTV ($USD)$9B +7%
Fee-bearing tickets (Ticketmaster)83M +4%
Concerts event-related deferred revenue ($USD)$5.1B +25%
Ticketmaster deferred revenue ($USD)$317M +22%
Year-to-date net cash provided by operating activities ($USD)$1.545B +10% vs 1H 2024 (approx)
Free cash flow—adjusted (Q2) ($USD)$438.1M $(17.9)M vs Q2 2024

Non-GAAP reconciliation notes: AOI excludes acquisition expenses, amortization of non-recoupable ticketing advances, D&A, gains/losses on operating asset disposals, stock-based comp, and significant Astroworld contingencies beyond insurance; Q2 AOI reconciliation provided in the release .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 2025)Current Guidance (Q2 2025)Change
AOI Growth (Consolidated)FY25Double-digit AOI growth expected Reiterated double-digit AOI growth Maintained
AOI Margins – ConcertsFY25Consistent with last year On track to be consistent with last year Maintained
AOI Margins – TicketmasterFY25High-30s, consistent with prior years Full-year AOI margin consistent with prior years Maintained
AOI Margins – SponsorshipFY25Low-60s, consistent with prior years Full-year AOI margin consistent with prior years; AOI up double-digits FY Maintained/raised AOI trajectory
CapexFY25$900M–$1B; $700–$800M venue expansion; ~$200–$250M partner funding $900M–$1B; $700–$800M venue expansion; ~$200M partner funding Maintained (funding refined)
Depreciation & AmortizationFY25+~$75M vs last year +~$75M vs last year Maintained
P&L Tax ExpenseFY25—15–20% of AOI; cash taxes 20–25% lower than P&L Introduced detail
FX ImpactQ2/FY25Low-single-digit impact in Q2 Not expected to materially impact 2H Improved outlook
Share CountFY25Not expected to change materially from 2024 Not expected to change materially from 2024 Maintained
OCESA AccretionH2 2025+$125M full-year accretion higher vs last year ~$250M in Q3; ~$35M in Q4 accretion Updated specifics

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Global expansion and stadium pipelineStadium pipeline up 60%; international strength; 2025 expected bigger than 2024 Stadium fan count tripled YoY; strong international growth across Europe, APAC, LatAm Improving
Ticketing mix (primary vs secondary)Ticketmaster momentum; deferred revenue record; high-30s margin reiterated Shift toward primary market pricing; secondary GTV down mid-single digits; AOI flat YoY Mixed
APAC opportunity and 2026 pipelineBroader global venue expansion plan through 2026 APAC cited as key growth focus; 40–50% of global stadiums for 2026 already booked; potential NA stadium constraints from FIFA events Improving pipeline visibility
Sponsorship visibility75–85% committed entering 2025; low-60s margin 95% committed; new partners (Kraft Heinz, Airbnb, Samsung; United Airlines ticket access) Strengthening
Venue Nation returns and capacity20%+ IRR targets; venue expansion adding 6–7M run-rate fans by 2026 20%+ returns reiterated; pipeline for 10 new large venues in 2026 adding 6M run-rate capacity Consistent/positive
Regulatory/legal backdropError corrections to prior statements; general risk disclosures External investigations mentioned in media; continued risk-factor caution Ongoing monitoring

Management Commentary

  • “Global expansion continues to drive touring growth… we’re positioned to grow operating income and AOI by double-digits this year and for years to come.” – Michael Rapino, CEO .
  • On international growth drivers and APAC opportunity: management emphasized stadium activity and global reach, noting strong recent activity in Asia and pipeline visibility for 2026 .
  • On pricing dynamics: “Primary versus secondary ticketing” shift producing higher price realization and decreased arbitrage in concerts and sports, with net positive impact to primary .
  • Sponsorship momentum: 95%+ of revenue committed for 2025; new deals include Kraft Heinz, Airbnb, Samsung; Ticket access agreement with United Airlines .

Q&A Highlights

  • International and APAC growth focus: Management sees significant expansion across APAC (including Japan) and broader global markets; 2026 stadium pipeline already partially booked, despite potential North American stadium constraints due to FIFA events .
  • Venue Nation capacity vs utilization: Increased fans in operated venues driven by new venues coming online and better utilization; venue investments continue to deliver >20% returns .
  • Ticketing economics: Shift toward primary ticketing improves price realization while moderating secondary GTV; FX headwinds noted at Ticketmaster in 1H .
  • FY25 trajectory: Management reiterated confidence in double-digit AOI growth and consistent AOI margins across segments; AOI acceleration expected in 2H (Ticketmaster and Sponsorship) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 revenue beat consensus: $7.01B actual vs $6.89B* estimate (+1.6%); diluted EPS missed: $0.41 actual vs $1.04* estimate (driven by accretion, taxes, FX totaling ~$185M higher costs vs last year) .
  • Estimates depth: 17 revenue estimates and 10 EPS estimates for Q2 2025; expect sell-side to adjust EPS paths to reflect higher accretion/NCI and tax cadence, while maintaining revenue strength and AOI confidence into 2H [GetEstimates].

Values with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top-line and Concerts strength intact: International stadium/arena momentum and onsite spend support record revenue/AOI, providing confidence in 2H and FY double-digit AOI growth .
  • Expect 2H AOI acceleration: Ticketmaster and Sponsorship slated to grow AOI double-digits in 2H; AOI margins to remain consistent with prior years, a constructive setup despite Q2 EPS miss .
  • EPS dynamics: Revenue beat vs EPS miss was primarily non-operational (accretion, taxes, FX); watch OCESA accretion timing (~$250M in Q3, ~$35M in Q4) and NCI step-up that can dilute EPS optics despite AOI strength .
  • Pricing strategy shift: Greater market-based pricing in primary ticketing reduces secondary arbitrage; near-term secondary GTV softness is offset by improved primary economics and sustained fan demand .
  • Sponsorship visibility: With ~95% revenue committed, new brand partnerships (Kraft Heinz, Airbnb, Samsung) bolster late-year performance, particularly Q4 .
  • Capital allocation and balance sheet: Capex unchanged ($900M–$1B) with partner funding; >90% fixed-rate debt at ~4.4% and no maturities remaining this year support venue expansion strategy .
  • Monitor risks: FX outlook improved (minimal impact in 2H), but regulatory/legal headlines and elevated NCI/tax dynamics are watch items for EPS volatility even as AOI trends remain robust .